Columbus Pins Hopes on Realignment Plan . . . Again

To say that fans of the Columbus Blue Jackets  — not to mention the club itself — are salivating over the prospect that meaningful NHL re-alignment is an understatement of epic proportions.  The pending plan, which would move both Columbus and Detroit to their rightful spots in the Eastern Conference, would also reverse a string of misfortune that has many in Central Ohio searching for the nearest exorcist.

Consider that the community received its first perceived reprieve in 2011, when the NHL announced its approval of a realignment plan that would have provided much-needed travel relief.  Unfortunately, the NHLPA chose that issue to fire its first proverbial warning shot  across the league’s bow,  sinking realignment — together with the first half of the 2012-13 season.  The part that was  wiped out?  That included the All Star Game as a victim — which was slated to take place in Columbus.  In the interim, the Blue Jackets helped disprove the notion that winning the lottery depends upon how many tickets you buy.  Edmonton snuck in — again — to claim the #1 overall pick.   True, the Blue Jackets still garnered a top prospect in Ryan Murray — who then promptly went down with a season-ending shoulder injury.

So, when word began to leak about the latest NHL plan for realignment, the Columbus constituency reacted with guarded enthusiasm, with anticipation balanced by the slightly paranoid fear that a vast conspiracy would find a way to snatch this apparent victory from their grasp at the last moment.  Given all that’s happened, it’s understandable.  Keep in mind that this franchise has lost most of two of its first twelve seasons to work stoppages. However, on the positive side, the Blue Jackets made some nice off-season acquisitions in Artem Anisimov, Sergei Bobrovsky, Brandon Dubinsky, Tim Erixon and Nick Foligno, have three first round picks for the upcoming draft, and earned league-wide plaudits for nabbing John Davidson and Jarmo Kekaleinen for front office roles.

Realignment Nuts & Bolts

To briefly review the merits, the NHL plan calls for four divisions, with eight teams in each of the two Eastern Conference divisions, and seven in the two Western Conference subdivisions.  Here’s how they line up:

Eastern – Central:  Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, Buffalo, Detroit, Boston, Florida, Tampa Bay
Eastern-Atlantic:  Columbus, New York Rangers, New York Islanders, New Jersey, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Washington
Western- Midwest: Minnesota, Chicago, St. Louis, Nashville, Winnipeg, Dallas, Colorado
Western-Pacific: Phoenix, Anaheim, Los Angeles, San Jose, Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary

Under the plan, the top three teams in each division would automatically qualify for the playoffs, while the remaining two slots in each conference would go to the next two highest point totals, regardless of division. Playoffs would commence at the divisional level, then move to the conference stage.  Each team would have a home-and-home series with the teams in the other conference, and varying intra-conference games, depending upon conference.  The major moves, of course, involve Winnipeg moving from East to West, with both Columbus and Detroit moving from West to East, being the only Eastern Time Zone teams presently in the West.  (For geography nerds, Columbus actually lies east of both Detroit and Atlanta, which was also an Eastern Conference club before relocation to Winnipeg.)  The alignment would apparently be revisited in the 2015-16 time frame.  While the NHLPA and the NHL Board of Governors must each approve the plan, multiple reports indicate that the NHLPA was involved at some level during the planning phases.

Objections & Obstacles: Let History Be Your Guide

Consistent with the regional paranoia over negative results, let’s look at the reactions of the naysayers first.  The most frequently voiced concern involves the disparity in numbers between the conferences, and the notion that it is “easier” to make the playoffs in the Western Conference than in the East.   While many point to the NHLPA voicing objections along these lines in 2011, keep in mind that both the substance and the timing of that objection had more to do with the NHLPA asserting its position before the CBA talks, rather than any true abiding concern over realignment.

More fundamentally, a brief review of NHL history shows that disparate conference size is hardly a novelty.  Sure, for those relatively new to the game, the last eleven years on the ice with 30 teams divided into 15 team conferences seems like an eternal truth.  However, the fact is that between the initial NHL expansion in 1967 and the completion of the most recent expansion in 2000, the conferences were unbalanced for 18 years, and equally distributed in 16 years.  The sun rose every morning, and no cataclysmic event resulted from this disparity.

Others have raised concerns over the geographical pairings, noting the somewhat bizarre pairings in the “Central Division” matching the Florida teams with the eastern Canadian teams, Detroit, Boston and Buffalo.  First, no alignment plan can be geographically perfect in a league that is geographically over-distributed to the Northeast. However, such geographical anomalies are hardly rare. When Buffalo and Vancouver were added to the NHL for the 1970-71 season, they were both placed in the Eastern Conference, with Chicago moved to the West.  Huh?   When the beloved Campbell and Prince of Wales conferences were discarded before the 1993-94 season, the Western Conference included Toronto.  (Oh, and the West had 12 teams, while the East had 14)  The Maple Leafs did not move back East until the 1998-1999 season, when Nashville entered the League.  Such idiosyncratic pairings have been relatively common since the league doubled in 1967, and again — no catastrophic results.

One objection that I expected to hear more — but haven’t — is objections from the Western Conference clubs — particularly Nashville, St. Louis and Chicago — over losing Detroit as a draw.  For the Pacific and Northwest teams it is not a huge issue, as Detroit comes to town only twice per year today, and will be there once in the new system.  The reduced travel more than makes up for that.  While Chicago fans will likely have an emotional reaction to being the lone Original Six team in the West, their club packs the house every night anyway, so the immediate impact is nil.  Of course, it was not that long ago that the seats were empty in the Windy City, so it may not always be the case.  Nashville & St. Louis will miss the Detroit draw far more.

Finally, some object to the notion of the “wild card” concept, the seeding of playoff participants, and other aspects of the post-season arrangement.  However, no matter what system is implemented, these objections will surface.  The objections, however, are not truly related to the specific alignment methodology, but rather simple expressions of differing views of how playoffs should be conducted.  Some want an NCAA Tournament method, others want different seeding strategies and still others insist on the equal conference configuration, claiming tradition (in spite of the historical facts referenced above.)    Things change, and games adapt to them.  Baseball manages to profess the sanctity of the home record, despite the fact that ball parks are vastly different dimensions, and individual teams can alter the fences, moving them in or back, up or down.  Get used to it.

The Great Expansion Question

Any time you have mismatched conferences, speculation immediately turns to expansion, even as the NHL denies having any plans on the drawing board.  (If you believe that one, come see me.  I have some property you might be interested in . . .)   Some suggest that the fact that the gaps fall in the Western Conference is inconsistent with what everyone assumes to be expansion targeted in southern Ontario.  They reason that such an expansion would immediately send the Blue Jackets back to the West.  Not so fast . .  .

First, the Ontario expansion is merely one of the target areas, which also include Seattle, Kansas City or even Oklahoma City.  One of the wild cards, of course, is the Phoenix situation.  However, whether Phoenix folds or  relocates (to Seattle, Kansas City or Toronto),  the result is pretty much the same.    Obviously, Kansas City or Seattle entries fall in the West, but what about a second Toronto-area club?   Many assume that the club would have to be in the East, but is that really true?  Again, the Maple Leafs were in the West for a considerable length of time.  Also, with two clubs in the same geography, wouldn’t you want the two in separate conferences, setting up the potential for an “All-Toronto” Stanley Cup final?   Sure you would.

Again, the assumptions that the NHL would have to go immediately to 32 teams is misplaced.  The league was at 21 clubs for a decade, so 30 or 31 is not an issue.  So while expansion is certainly a lieklihood, despite the NHL protestations to the contrary, there is nothing about the realignment plan that mandates it over the short term.

Positives Abound

Ultimately, the success of realignment rises and falls with the economics of the situation — for the individual clubs and the NHL as a whole.  At the most obvious level, moving Detroit and Columbus east creates far more television opportunities for both the league and the involved clubs.  West coast games that start at 10 or  10:30 PM just don’t draw ratings, even among the most ardent fans.  Detroit is a big draw, anywhere and anytime, and the league will undoubtedly leverage that fact.   The Red Wings in prime time for the East is something the NHL will love, and it will provide some leverage for bigger and better TV deals.

While Detroit’s drawing power is ubiquitous, Columbus will see tremendous benefits from an Eastern Conference affiliation.  While the uninitiated do not acknowledge Columbus as a hockey market, nothing could be further from the truth.  However, until the Blue Jackets arrived, local hockey fans rooted for Detroit, Pittsburgh and – to a lesser extent — Chicago.  There are no historical to most of the Western Conference cities.  Historically, the Eastern Conference teams have outdrawn the Western clubs (except Detroit and Chicago) by a considerable margin at Nationwide Arena.  Last season, the gap was over 2,000 per game. The lowest attendance for a Pittsburgh game at Nationwide is 18,136 – a sellout.  Having more traditional opponents — including Detroit — will enhance attendance, facilitate TV ratings and even encourage more travel to away games.

Finally, there is the matter of success.  Since entering the NHL in 2000, the Blue Jackets have posted a record of 83-76-28 vs. Eastern Conference clubs.  It goes without saying that this is much better than the Columbus record within its own conference.  Of course, there are no guarantees of success, but again that history thing provides encouragement.

Will It Happen?

This, of course, is the big question, and skeptics hearken back to the 2011 plan in projecting that the NHLPA will scuttle this deal as well.    This argument fails to hold water. First, as suggested above, the time and circumstances are different.  The NHLPA has nothing to prove, no point to make this time around.  They have apparently played some role in the process to date, which I suspect was part of their prior objection.  There is  no public relations advantage to blocking this deal, and indeed could be some PR dangers if they are seen as being overtly obstructionist.

More fundamentally, there are manifest reasons to do this, and few  — if any — compelling reasons not to.  At the most basic level, there is every reason in the world to move Winnipeg to the west, particularly when you have at least one team — and in this case two teams — who should properly move east.   Even if you didn’t do anything else, a swap of Winnipeg for either Columbus or Detroit would need to occur, and Columbus would be the most likely candidate in that scenario, simply on geography.  There are major economic benefits to Columbus that come from a move east, while Detroit will save some travel time and expense, but otherwise will not likely see big financial gains.  The Joe sells out every night, regardless of opponent, and Original Six fans across the country buy the Winged Wheel sweaters and gear, no matter what conference they are in.

None of the objections raised thus far resonate as being deal killers.  There will never be that idyllic realignment plan that has everyone holding hands, skipping merrily off into the sunset.  So, given that something needs to happen, and there really is not a big reason not to implement this plan, my bet is that it gets approved, relatively intact.  Stay tuned Columbus — you may have just earned some added sleep.

Author information

Jeff LittleManaging CounselFan of hockey at all levels, with focus on the Blue Jackets, Miami RedHawks and the business side of the game. I try to bring a rational, even-handed analysis to my writing, wtih just a touch of snark. I use my legal background to bring some more insight on the business side. Love family, travel, hockey, golf and curling.TwitterFacebookGoogle+

This article was originally published at: The Hockey Writers.

How Will Ryan O'Reilly's Return Affect the Avalanche Roster

Ryan O’Reilly (Charles LeClaire-USPRESSWIRE)

The sage is over, with a swift flick of a wrist, the Colorado Avalanche matched the offer sheet put to Ryan O’Reilly by the Calgary Flames, and O’Reilly will remain a member of the Colorado Avalanche.

O’Reilly arrived in Denver on Friday and passed his first test, a physical, before fully re-joining his teammates. He’ll continue his journey back to the NHL Saturday morning when he practices with the Avalanche for the first time this season. I have to say, I’d be interested in being a fly on the wall when he and Matt Duchene come together for the first time.

Any potential hurt feelings aside, having O’Reilly back in the lineup will be good for the Avalanche, who have had to deal with several injury issues to this point. To get a player with the two-way benefits O’Reilly can have when at his best will definitely help the team moving forward.

O’Reilly’s return should also shake up the lineup a little bit as well, and here are some of the ways in which it could affect the team.

Shake Up The Lines 

(Icon SMI)

O’Reilly’s re-introduction to the team will cause the lines to change up a decent amount. Not the top line, you don’t touch that line with Matt Duchene in-between P.A. Parenteau and Jamie McGinn. This line has played consistently well ever since it was put together and has shown dominance at times. You don’t mess with what’s working.

I don’t believe that O’Reilly gets immediately placed back with Landeskog. He hasn’t played at an NHL level in 10 months or so, so I wouldn’t count on O’Reilly being up on the second line, not even over the likes of David Jones.

The change that this could have an affect on revolves the most around John Mitchell. Mitchell has been the third-line center for the Avalanche and has played fantastically all year. With O’Reilly coming back, you have two choices; make him a winger on either the second or third line, or make him the center for the fourth line. Mitchell deserves more ice time than any fourth line center would get, so count on Mitchell going to wing.

Who Is the Odd Man Out? 

Mark Olver (Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports)

The Avalanche are going to have to make a tough decision on personnel here. Now that O’Reilly is back in the lineup, somebody has to get sent back down to Lake Erie in order to make room on the roster.

When you think about it, there are really three people that it comes down to; Mark Olver, Aaron Palushaj and Patrick Bordeleau. The obvious choice to send down is Bordeleau as he is the only one that wouldn’t have to clear waivers in order to get down. If the Avalanche care about losing one the player they send down, it will most likely be Bordeleau.

On the other hand, the other obvious choice would be Aaron Palushaj. Palushaj has done nothing but play fantastically for the Avalanche since arriving, but it seems like coach Joe Sacco hasn’t much cared that Palushaj has done nothing but produce as Palushaj has been a healthy scratch or seen his ice time significantly cut in the past week. It seems Sacco doesn’t value what Palushaj brings, so perhaps the Avalanche place him on waivers and count it as a win if they he happens to clear.

What Do the Lines Look Like

Line 1: Jamie McGinn – Matt Duchene – P.A. Parenteau.

Line 2: Gabriel Landeskog – Paul Stastny – Milan Hejduk

Line 3: John Mitchell – Ryan O’Reilly – David Jones

Line 4: Cody McLeod – Mark Olver – Patrick Bordeleau/Aaron Palushaj.

O’Reilly’s addition definitely helps return a certain amount of depth to the team, especially now that they seem to be getting healthier.

Author information

Kevin GoffI'm a Denver native who has been a fan of the Avalanche since they came to town and a fan of the game before that. I started writing my own blog a couple years ago before moving to Bleacher Report and becoming a Featured Columnist there. You can also find me the Burgundy Brigade PodcastTwitter

This article was originally published at: The Hockey Writers.

Motown Madness is THE card set for Red Wings fans

I’ve got to hand it to In The Game – they sure know how to pay tribute to a hockey team.

Over the years, the Ontario-based hockey card company has produced series that are dedicated to clubs like the Canadiens, Leafs and Flyers.

Now, it’s the Detroit Red Wings turn for the tribute, coming in the form of Motown Madness, In The Game’s latest release.

Admittedly, I was a bit sceptical about the set. I wasn’t disappointed, per se, by the past team efforts, but the Habs, Buds and Bullies didn’t really appeal to me. Two of the teams were hated rivals of my beloved Winnipeg Jets, while the other was Philly, a club that… well… is hated by everyone that isn’t a Philly fanatic.

The Red Wings though are a bit of a different case. Unless you’re a Colorado Avalanche fan, you’ve likely cheered for the once “Dead Wings” in the last 15 to 20 years. How can you not support a guy like Steve Yzerman afterall?

That’s a big part of what made me want to break open my sample box of Motown Madness. Usually I wait, pondering another break video that never gets to YouTube; but in this case I couldn’t. Teases in the short days leading up to the Red Wings-focused release had done me in.

The set breaks down extremely well. Each box includes five base cards or parallels (the parallels have gold foil), four autographs (including cut pieces from players long deceased), one commemorative “Patch of Honor” card and two memorabilia cards.

The Patch of Honor cards are probably going to intrigue collectors the most. Composed of commemorative (read: replica) material, the patches are from memorable games in Red Wings history, including opening draws played in Europe and the Stanley Cup Finals. Invariably, there will be collectors who will try to “complete the puzzle”.

As obvious as it may sound, the cards that will have the most collector intrigue will be a rare insert titled “Boardmarks”. These cards are about as unique as they come – autographed pieces of rinkboard from Joe Louis Arena and the Olympia. With Yzerman, Gordie Howe, Red Kelly and Ted Lindsay on this short checklist, there will be some die-hard Red Wings fans chasing the mini set.

But what tops the cake for Motown Madness is the depth of the checklist. Sure, you get the standards like the aforementioned Yzerman and Howe, but you also get rare players like Darryl Sittler who played one season in Detroit, as well as rarely seen players like Nick Libett. It’s hard to go up and down the checklist and not find a player who you want a card of. Using myself as an example, at the top of my wantlist was Jim Nill, a former Jet.

There’s no question that the price for Motown Madness makes the box worthwhile, but if  you need any more inspiration, check out our break below.

Hockey Breakers Report

Packs per Box: 1

Cards per Pack: 12

Expected Base: 5

Expected Inserts: 1

Expected Autographs: 4

Expected Memorabilia: 2

Best Card: Teammates dual memorabilia – Steve Yzerman/Darryl Sittler
Okay it’s pretty obvious, but having any Steve Yzerman jersey card – especially one with a two-color swatch – is incredible. Add a dual color jersey of one of the rarest sweaters in the lot (Sittler played only one season in Detroit) and you have the recipe for a permanent fixture in a collection.

Other Hits: Autographs of Ron Low, Warren Young, Igor Larionov, Short-print Autograph of Paul Henderson, Patch of Honor of Dominik Hasek (2002 Stanley Cup Finals), Game-Used Red Jersey of Bill RanFord

Want the Igor Larionov autograph from my break? Tune into THW Live tomorrow night!

 

Author information

Jon WaldmanJon Waldman has written about hockey for several publications over his decade-long journalism career, including The Hockey News, The Toronto Sun and Winnipeg Men Magazine. A graduate of Ryerson University's journalism program, Jon is working on his first book on the history of hockey, to go along with two other books he has published since 2009.

This article was originally published at: The Hockey Writers.

What Ryan O'Reilly's Return Means for the Colorado Avalanche

(Icon SMI)

It’s not often when a team can overcome a 3-0 deficit and earn a huge 5-4 victory, led by its captain, who had by far his best game of the season and its leading scorer who, after going pointless over his last three games and missed one due to a groin injury, can return and score the game-winning goal and add an assist that that story gets pushed to the back burner.  But that is exactly what happened last night.

The story of the hour for the Colorado Avalanche is none other than the return of holdout center, Ryan O’Reilly.  The NHL lockout officially ended on January 12th, 2013 and after 47 days, the ugly dispute between Camp O’Reilly and the Colorado Avalanche finally ended on February 28th, 2013.

The dispute certainly did not end with Avalanche general manager Greg Sherman and Ryan O’Reilly shaking hands after agreeing to a contract.  Instead, the Calgary Flames, who were (coincidentally?) the Avs opponent last night signed the disgruntled center to a back-loaded two-year, $10 offer sheet which will pay O’Reilly a prorated $1 million this year, a $2.5 million signing bonus, and a massive $6.5 million next season.

Although the Avs could have taken up to seven days to decide whether or not to match the offer sheet, Avs brass took a mere four hours before announcing their decision to match the offer for O’Reilly.

The Plus

Obviously, adding a player of O’Reilly’s talents will be a much-needed addition to the Avs’ lineup.  There is certainly a reason why, as a second-round pick, O’Reilly was able to make the jump to the NHL straight from the draft.  A move that was expected for top three picks like Matt Duchene and Gabe Landeskog, but almost unheard of for an 18-year-old second-rounder.

O’Reilly has established himself as one of the best young two-way centers in the NHL and enjoyed an offensive rise last season as he finished the season as the Avs leading scorer with 55 points.  If he can continue the rise and growth he showed last year, and fences can be mended between him and the Avs, then he could prove to be worth his contract and earn an even longer one next year.

The Minus

A year ago, it seemed all but a foregone conclusion that Ryan O’Reilly was part of the young, talented, core of players of the Colorado Avalanche’s present and future.  Now, after a very bitter contract dispute, O’Reilly is back with the Avs.  But has the damage been done?  It’s been less than 24 hours since everything transpired, so I’m sure Greg Sherman and O’Reilly’s agent Mark Guy still aren’t on each other’s Christmas card list and more importantly, what is the dynamic going to look like with O’Reilly and his teammates who have been playing for the past month and a half without him.  I also wouldn’t expect any trades between Colorado and Calgary in the near future.  Although Calgary’s offer sheet was certainly within NHL rules and guidelines, they broke the code and violated an unwritten rule and Sherman did not seem very happy indeed when asked about their actions.

Matt Duchene has been brilliant this year after signing a quick, painless two-year, $7 million deal.  He leads the Avs in scoring with 19 points in 18 games and looks hungry to prove he’s a top NHL center.  Duchene will be well aware that O’Reilly will be making $3 million more than he will be next year simply by holding out.  Will there be any bad blood?

Rumor was that O’Reilly was “hurt” after Gabe Landeskog was named the team’s captain instead of him.  Will this affect the relationship between Landy and O’Reilly going forward?  They comprised two thirds of the Avs best line last year and it would not be suprising to see them reunited given their past success.

The Here and Now

Ryan O’Reilly wasted no time getting back to Denver.  He passed his physical today and is expected to practice with the team tomorrow at 9:00am at the team’s practice facility, Family Sports.  He could be in the lineup conceivably as early as Sunday night when the Avs travel to Columbus.  Here is how the forward lines may shape up:

McGinn-Duchene-Parenteau
Landeskog-O’Reilly-Hejduk
Mitchell-Stastny-Jones
McLeod-Olver-Bordeleau

O’Reilly’s return will inevitably spell the end of someone else’s Avalanche tenure, at least for now.  Stefan Elliott may be the quick answer and as he has been watching the past few Avs games as a healthy scratch and could easily be sent down to Lake Erie, but the seemingly imminent returns of defensemen Erik Johson and Ryan Wilon will require further roster spots to open up.  Waiver pickup Aaron Palushaj played well after coming to Colorado, but has been a healthy scratch of late as well.  The Avs would have to put him on waivers and hope another team does not claim him as the Avs did if they want to retain his rights.  Although Patrick Bordeleau has played in every game this season, he could see his NHL career come to a halt with O’Reilly’s return.  The Avs could also choose to waive a veteran like Chuck Kobasew or Greg Zanon.

The Future

Clouded, Ryan O’Reilly’s future in Colorado is, to paraphrase Jedi Master Yoda.  Matt Duchene is certainly cementing his status as the team’s top center for the long-haul.  Next season, the Avs will be strapped with a $6.6 million center in Paul Stastny and O’Reilly’s $6.5 million price tag as well.  That is quite a price for a third line center and unless one of those two wants to take a significant pay cut after next year, one of them will likely be gone.  Cue the Paul Stastny trade rumors again.

The Avs will face a very busy offseason after the 2013-2014 season.  O’Reilly’s now infamous deal will be ending and the Avs will need to tender at least his $6.5 million price to retain his services.  Captain Gabe Landeskog’s rookie deal will end and he will need to be paid.  Matt Duchene’s bridge deal will end and he will be owed big, long-term money.  Goalie Semyon Varlamov, whom the Avs paid a steep cost to get and is thought to be the goalie of the future in Colorado will need a new contract.  Paul Stastny’s five-year, $33 million contract will end.  Other players with expiring contracts after next year include forwards Jamie McGinn and Steve Downie, defenseman Tyson Barrie, and goalie Jean-Sebastien Giguere.  It will be quite the offseason!

 

Author information

Joey SuyeishiJoey is a Colorado native and has been an avid fan of the Colorado Avalanche since their move here in 1995 when they brought the state of Colorado its very first major sports championship in their inaugural season. He's played hockey for the past decade, both roller and ice. He began playing as the goalie for the Colorado State University Roller Hockey team. Currently, he plays on a couple ice hockey rec league teams in the Denver area, both as a goalie and as a position player.TwitterFacebookGoogle+LinkedIn

This article was originally published at: The Hockey Writers.

Washington Capitals Player Grades: February 2013

The Washington Capitals (7-11-1) had their ups and downs through the month of February, but got back into the Southeast Division race. They entered March trailing the Carolina Hurricanes by only six points, giving Capitals' fans a glimmer of hope for the remainder of the season. However, they hold the second to worst record points wise with 17, only ahead of the league worst Columbus Blue Jackets by two points. The Hockey Writers grades Washington's player performances from February below.

Forwards:

Mike Ribeiro: The former Dallas Stars forward and impending unrestricted free agent totaled 14 points in Washington's 12 February contests, registering five goals and nine assists. He earned 18:21 minutes of ice time in the month, but held a minus five even with his outstanding offensive numbers.

Grade: A-

Alex Ovechkin: The Capitals' face of the franchise averaged a point per game in February, with 12 points (6 goals, 6 assists) in 12 games. But, only five of his points came during even strength play. He registered a minus four to go with 10.2 shooting percentage.

Grade: B+

Nicklas Backstrom: The Capitals top two way forward recorded two goals and nine assists in 12 February matchups, but only registered 23 shots on goal. He totaled five helpers on the Capitals' improving power play.

Grade: B-

Troy Brouwer: The former Chicago Blackhawk tied Ovechkin for February goals with six to go with four assists in 12 games. He totaled seven points on the man advantage, along with an outstanding shooting clip of 20.7%.

Grade: B

Eric Fehr: This power forward returned to Washington on a one year deal prior to the beginning of the season and has provided to be a good signing by General Manager George McPhee. Fehr had quite a month of February, totaling seven points in 12 contests, while averaging 12:08 minute of ice time in an increased role. He also added a shorthanded goal against the New Jersey Devils.

Photo by Caps in Pictures

Grade: A-

Joel Ward: Following a hot start to the shortened season, Ward continued his strong play. He registered seven points in 12 games, playing on a line with Mathieu Perreault and Eric Fehr for the most part.

Grade: B+

Mathieu Perreault: Although an undersized forward, the longtime product of the Washington Capitals organization posted seven goals in only eight games in February. He averaged 13:01 minutes of ice time during the second month of the season, scoring at a 20% shooting clip.

Grade: A

Wojtek Wolski: The forward product of numerous NHL teams signed a one year deal with Washington this summer in hopes of finding his offensive game again, but he has certainly disappointed this season. Wolski posted only two points in 12 February contests, but received 14:54 minutes of ice time even though he struggled mightily.

Grade: D

Wojtek Wolski (Photo Credit: Andy Martin Jr)

Jason Chimera: Washington's gritty forward totaled two points in 12 games, along with a team worst minus seven. He failed to find the back of the net with his 22 shots on goal.

Grade: D+

Matt Hendricks: The Capitals' enforcer totaled two points in February, along with a team high 21 penalty minutes. He averaged 11:58 minutes of ice time in the second month of the season.

Grade: B-

Jay Beagle: Washington's fourth line center and penalty kill specialist contributing two points in February, to go with his 14 shots on goal. He's returned to his role of the past, following Adam Oates experiment with Beagle on a line with Joey Crabb and Captain Alex Ovechkin.

Grade: B

Joey Crabb: The former Toronto Maple Leaf failed to register a point in 12 February contests, but only had six shots on goal.

Grade: C+

Defensemen:

John Carlson: With the absence of fellow offensively skilled defenseman Mike Green, Carlson stepped up big time on the Capitals' blue line. He totaled three goals and four assists in Washington's 12 February contests in 22:52 minutes of ice time per game.

Grade: A-

Tomas Kundratek: Washington's youngest defenseman on the team netted five assists in February, including three assists on the power play. He appears to be a lock on the Capitals' defense for the remainder of the regular season.

Grade: B

Mike Green: Washington's highest paid defensemen missed three games in February, but totaled four points in nine games. He must increase his offensive production and become a mentor for young defenseman Tomas Kundratek.

Grade: B+

(Tom Turk/THW)

Jeff Schultz: Schultz recorded three assists in ten February games to go with a minus two in 13:36 minutes of ice time. His defensive game is needed on the backend of the Capitals' defense.

Grade: B-

Karl Alzner: Washington's top defensive presence tallied one goal in February, and also average 21 minutes of ice time. He's played solid following his separation from longtime defensive partner John Carlson.

Grade: A-

John Erskine: Washington's newly extended defenseman has earned a top four role on Washington's blue line, contributing a goal and plus three in February. Expect Erskine on the backend of the Capitals' defense next season following a few additions on the blue line.

Grade: B+

Tom Poti: A surprise at training camp, Poti has made an impact on the Capitals' defense, earning playing time over NHL veteran Roman Hamrlik. He totaled an assist and recorded a minus one in seven February contests.

Grade: B-

Goalies:

Braden Holtby: Holtby grabbed the starting goalie spot in Washington during the month of February, playing in 11 games. He posted a 2.90 goals against average and .907 save percentage along with two shutouts.

Grade: B

(Tom Turk/THW)

Michal Neuvirth: With Holtby grabbing the stranglehold of the starting goalie position, Neuvirth only played in two games in February. He registered a 3.28 goals against average and .844 save percentage in 91:21 minutes between the pipes.

You can follow Matthew on twitter @m_speck and email him at mspeck21@yahoo.com with any questions or comments.

Author information

Matthew SpeckMatthew Speck is the Washington Capitals writer for The Hockey Writers. He currently resides near Hershey, Pennsylvania. Matthew is also a credentialed AHL writer, covering the Hershey Bears for Inside Hockey.TwitterGoogle+

This article was originally published at: The Hockey Writers.

NHL Realignment: Third Time is a Charm?

Gary Bettman wonders if his realignment plans will be left out in the cold…again (Kellen/Icon SMI)

What's Wrong with the Proposal?
Clearly, realignment is no easy task for any professional sports league. Inevitably, some teams will be at a traveling disadvantage due to their geographic location. The Arizona Cardinals, for example, once played in the NFC East; the Atlanta Braves once called the NL West home. Simply put, there is no way for any league to keep all of its teams completely happy with the division in which they play. The NHL, however, faces some unique challenges compared to other leagues, especially now. With nearly one quarter of its franchises located in Canada, the league must deal with divisional travel challenges that are not faced by the other major sports. Throw in the and producing a successful long-term realignment plan will prove to be quite a challenge.
That being said, the is laughable, at best. Surely, this can't be Gary Bettman and the league's best effort. While they did address NHLPA concerns regarding how teams would qualify for the playoffs with a sort of wild card system in an effort to ensure the best teams would make the post-season, there are still several issues with the new plan.
For starters, the breakdown consists of 16 teams in the East and 14 in the West. Obviously, this creates a slight imbalance for the chances of teams to have an equal shot at a post-season berth. This may not be a huge concern for present purposes but, should the Coyotes relocate to the East (to Quebec City, for example), the NHL will find itself in a similar situation that it faces now with Winnipeg playing in the South East division. Worse yet, without some other sort of realignment, it could lead to 17 teams in the East versus 13 in the West. Surely the league doesn't want to tinker with the divisions again in the next few years.
Aside from disparity in the number of teams in each conference, the divisional breakdown must leave some organizations scratching their heads. Take the Florida Panthers. Nevermind that their backyard is literally the Atlantic Ocean and they would be playing in the Central rather than, you know, the Atlantic. Consider the fact that the team would be geographically closer to taking a Puerto Rican vacation than to their second closest divisional opponent, the Detroit Red Wings. . On the bright side, this means the league has gift wrapped the perfect line for General Manager Dale Tallon to woo potential free agents to South Beach: 'Sure, you have to play to half-empty arenas every night but, hey, at least you'll rack up as many frequent flyer miles as anyone else in the league. You won't even have to deal with those nasty winters the Edmonton Oilers face.'
Third Time is a Charm
Sure, no plan will be perfect. There is simply no way to ensure every team will be happy with realignment. The trick is to minimize the damage. So, here is an alternative to the proposed plan, complete with throwback names for the divisions and conferences. There is even one name to represent each original six team to further celebrate the game's history (though probably more synonymous with Montreal, Scotty Bowman represents Detroit because, frankly, neither Howe nor Yzerman had the same ring for naming a division). So without further ado:

EASTERN (HULL) CONFERENCE:
Southeast (Orr) Division:
Florida, Tampa, Carolina, Nashville, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington
Northeast (Bowman) Division:
New Jersey, NY Islanders, NY Rangers, Boston, Buffalo, Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto

WESTERN (DRYDEN) CONFERENCE:
Central (Sittler) Division:
Columbus, Chicago, Detroit, Dallas, Minnesota, St. Louis, Winnipeg
Pacific (Park) Division:
Colorado, Anaheim, Calgary, Edmonton, LA, Phoenix, San Jose, Vancouver

Is it perfect? Clearly, it is not. A team like Detroit, for example will likely be disappointed to still find itself in the West. However, this plan groups teams a little more closely from both geographic and time-zone standpoints while still maintaining the majority of the rivalries throughout the league. Furthermore, should Phoenix move to the East, the plan is built to allow a smoother transition. Should the Coyotes end up in a place like Quebec City or Hamilton, they could either simply move to the Central (not ideal but manageable) or a team like Toronto could slide to the Central and the Coyotes could take their place in the Northeast. This would keep the competitive balance even with 15 teams in each conference without introducing yet another realignment in the coming years. Again, the key here is to minimize the damage for everyone involved. And that is something the NHL should be very interested in after the past year.

Author information

Sean GriffinSean Griffin is an At-Large contributor for The Hockey Writers. He worked in the front office of the Richmond Renegades (formerly of the SPHL) while obtaining an M.S. in Sports Leadership. He can be contacted at psgrif27@gmail.com.

This article was originally published at: The Hockey Writers.

The Magical Fourth Year Is Not A Myth

In the era of in-depth analysis, sabermetrics and advanced statistics, fantasy hockey managers are trying to find unique and more complicated ways to beat the opposition and win their fantasy drafts.

A theory that emerged a few years ago on the Internet, most notably on Dobber, is that offensive forwards tend to breakout in their fourth year in the NHL.

John Tavares entered into his 4th NHL season in 2012-13 (Icon SMI)

Most of you would ask, 'What is exactly the magical fourth season?' Well, roughly speaking, offensive players make big jumps in their production in years two through six. In the fourth year, 24 percent of players see an increase in the offensive numbers by around 25 percent.

In 2011-12, several players saw their offensive numbers jumped considerably compared to the previous season. The most notable were James Neal, Blake Wheeler, Max Pacioretty, Wayne Simmonds and Jamie McGinn.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS OFFENSIVE SURGE ONLY APPLIES TO FORWARDS, as defensemen generally take more time to develop as opposed to forwards, Erik Karlsson being the exception rather than the rule.

Back in April 2012 I predicted that some of the fourth-year players would explode offensively in 2013. Now let's study the offensive production of these ten talented NHL players and see how they are doing so far in 2013:

1. John Tavares, New York Islanders Fearless prediction for 2013: 48 games ' 21 goals and 34 assists for 55 points, -1 rating, 18 PIM

The heart of the Islanders’ offense with Matt Moulson, Tavares is a already a true All-Star after recording 81 points in 82 games last season. So far this season, Tavares has already recorded 13 goals and 12 assists for 25 points in 21 games, on pace for 57 points. Tavares’ numbers would be even more impressive if he was surrounded by better players.

HIT

2. Jamie Benn, Dallas Stars Fearless prediction for 2012-13: 43 games ' 21 goals and 25 assists for 46 points, +6 rating, 36 PIM

After missing the team’s first few games due a contractual dispute, Benn finally signed a multiyear contract with the Stars and missed only five games. In 16 games this season, Benn has been fairly productive, notching 6 goals and 8 assists for 14 points in 16 games, on pace for 37 points. Benn will have to improve his game in order to propel the struggling Stars into the playoffs

MISS

3. Matt Duchene, Colorado Avalanche Fearless prediction for 2012-13: 46 games ' 19 goals and 25 assists for 44 points, -1 rating, 8 PIM

In the absence of Ryan O’Reilly, who just signed a two-year contract with the team, Duchene had to raise the bar offensively to keep the Avalanche in the playoff race. So far, Duchene has not disappointed his fantasy owners with a production of 7 goals and 12 assists for 19 points in 18 games, on pace for 51 points

HIT

4. Logan Couture, San Jose Sharks Fearless prediction for 2013: 47 games ' 21 goals and 22 assists for 43 points,  +7 rating, 15 PIM

After scoring 30 goals or more in the past two campaigns, Couture started the season on fire with 7 points in his first 3 games. However, the Sharks have been struggling lately and Couture’s production slowed down dramatically as a result. On the season, he has 8 goals and 6 assists for 14 points in 19 games, on pace for 35 points.

MISS

5. Brad Marchand, Boston Bruins Fearless prediction for 2013: 46 games ' 19 goals and 21 assists for 40 points,  +15 rating, 57 PIM

The hard-working Marchand has been lighting the lamp this season with 10 goals (9th in the NHL) and 3 assists for 13 points in 16 games for the powerful Bruins, on pace for 39 points. Strangely, the super-pest has been quite disciplined this season, getting only four penalty minutes.

HIT

Evander Kane has shown flashes of brilliance this season (Jeanine Leech/Icon SMI)

6. Evander Kane, Winnipeg Jets Fearless prediction for 2013: 47 games ' 21 goals and 17 assists for 38 points,  +3 rating, 42 PIM

Kane has been on fire for the surging Jets, recording 10 points in his last 9 games. After sniping 30 goals last season, Kane is even more productive this season with 9 goals and 9 assists for 18 points in 20 games, currently on pace for 43 points.

HIT

7. James van Riemsdyk, Toronto Maple Leafs Fearless prediction for 2013: 46 games ' 16 goals and 18 assists for 34 points,  +4 rating, 30 PIM

van Riemsdyk is finally healthy and getting plenty of ice-time with the surprising Maple Leafs. In 22 games this season, JVR has been scoring goals in bunches with 12 goals and 4 assists for 16 points, on pace for 26 goals and 35 points

HIT

8. Michael Grabner, New York Islanders Fearless prediction for 2013: 48 games ' 18 goals and 15 assists for 33 points,  -4 rating, 8 PIM

After a career-year in 2010-11 when he scored 52 points in 76 games with the Isles, Grabner’s offensive production has been almost non-existent. This season, the speedy winger has only recorded 7 goals and 3 assists for 10 points in 21 goals, on pace for only 23 points.

MISS

9. Viktor Stalberg, Chicago Blackhawks Fearless prediction for 2013: 48 games ' 15 goals and 16 assists for 31 points,  +3 rating, 23 PIM

Part of the supporting cast for the NHL leaders, Stalberg has been contributing in different ways this season. The problem for fantasy owners is that he has not contributed much offensively with only 5 goals and 3 assists for 8 points in 20 games, on pace for a mere 19 points in 2013.

MISS

10. Kyle Turris, Ottawa Senators Fearless prediction for 2012-13: 45 games ' 11 goals and 19 assists for 30 points,  +8 rating, 35 PIM

With Jason Spezza, Erik Karlsson and Milan Michaek all missing time due to injuries, Kyle Turris was expected to carry the offensive load with captain Daniel Alfredsson. Despite the Senators’ success in recent games, Turris hasn’t recorded a single point in his past 5 games giving him only 4 goals and 8 assists for 12 points in 21 games, on pace for 27 points.

HIT

Overtime

Mikkel Boedker, Phoenix Coyotes

After producing only 11 goals and 13 assists for 24 points in 82 games for the defensive-minded Coyotes, Boedker is currently leading the team in scoring with 4 goals and 11 assists for 15 points in 20 games, on pace for 36 points in 2013.  Over a full season, Boedker would finish with more than 60 points, more than doubling his career-best 28 points in his rookie season.

Colin Wilson, Nashville Predators

After recording 34 and 35 points in the past two campaigns, Wilson has become the team’s #1 pivot this season. In 21 games, Wilson has 5 goals and 10 assists for 15 points, on pace for  34 points in only 48 games for the goal-starving Predators.

Eberle and Hall are strong candidates to explode offensively in 2013-14 (Michael Ivins-USA TODAY Sports)

As you can see, this theory is not a myth, so don't hesitate to rank fourth-year players higher on your draft lists next fall when you get ready for your fantasy drafts as they will most certainly provide you with a definite edge over the competition and could turn out to be the best bargains at the draft!

Some players to consider for next season are Taylor Hall, Tyler Ennis, Jeff Skinner, Jordan Eberle, Tyler Seguin, David Desharnais and Derek Stepan.

Follow me on Twitter for more updates on fantasy hockey and the NHL in general.

Author information

Fred PoulinFreelance translator/writerA long-time Joe Sakic fan, Fred, 34, is a freelance sports writer and translator. Fred earned a Bachelor of Translation in 2002 at Laval University in Quebec City. He also writes on the Montreal Canadiens for HabsAddict.com and he is an associate editor and a baseball columnist on Dobberbaseball.com. He is also fluent in English, French and Spanish.TwitterFacebookGoogle+

This article was originally published at: The Hockey Writers.